In an upcoming episode of Café Berlin, Ian Oxnevad and I are joined by Dr. Gregory J. Moore, Professor of Government at Patrick Henry College and Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.

Our conversation turns to Taiwan, but not in the usual way. Instead of asking only whether China will invade, Dr. Moore asks what Xi Jinping may be watching as he decides whether time is on Beijing’s side or running out.

Drawing from his article “Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Dashboard,” Dr. Moore explains the political, military, economic, technological, and psychological indicators that may shape Beijing’s decision-making. His conclusion is sobering: while China’s military readiness and economic troubles may argue for caution, many other factors may push Xi toward acting sooner rather than later.

Those factors include Taiwan’s identity drifting further away from China, the 2024 victory of the Democratic Progressive Party, China’s demographic decline, rising U.S. support for Taiwan, the still-developing state of U.S.-Taiwan military coordination, China’s current advantages in missile and hypersonic capabilities, and Beijing’s growing belief that Washington is trying to contain China.

We also discuss Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and the strategic importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Taiwan’s chip sector is not only an economic prize, but it is also leverage, infrastructure, talent, and vulnerability all at once. If Beijing believes that Taiwan’s semiconductor advantage is at its peak—and that overseas production in Arizona, Japan, and Germany may reduce Taiwan’s unique value over time—then technology itself becomes part of the timing question.

For colleges and universities, this episode carries an important warning. Taiwan is not only a military or diplomatic issue but also a higher-education one. The future of deterrence depends on expertise about China, Mandarin language training, engineering talent, semiconductor research, supply-chain knowledge, and the ability to understand authoritarian decision-making without illusion.

American colleges and universities, as Minding the Campus recently reported, sit at the center of this competition. They train the analysts, engineers, scientists, policymakers, and regional specialists who will have to understand China on its own terms. But they also produce the research, technical knowledge, partnerships, and talent pipelines that authoritarian competitors seek to access. The lesson is that it is time to stop treating universities as strategically neutral spaces, given that the CCP clearly does not see them that way.

This conversation is a reminder that research security, foreign influence, language study, area expertise, and STEM education are not separate debates. They are part of the same national-security picture.

If you want to understand Taiwan beyond headlines, invasion-date speculation, and wishful thinking, this episode offers a clearer way to read the deeper indicators that matter.

The episode premieres on Wednesday, July 15, at 2:00 p.m. Watch it on YouTube.

Follow Lilla Nóra Kiss on X and on LinkedIn.