Higher education is entering a period of contraction. A shrinking college-age population, poor job-market outcomes for recent graduates, and the looming effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market are forcing many Americans to ask a blunt question: Is college dead?

It’s not, according to Ryan Lufkin, vice president of global academic strategy at the education technology company Instructure. “But the old model is evolving drastically.” 

Surveys show widespread public skepticism about higher education’s performance. About eight in ten American adults say colleges and universities are doing a fair or poor job of keeping tuition affordable. Roughly half or more give similarly low marks to universities’ ability to prepare students for well-paying jobs, provide financial help to those who need it, and develop critical thinking and problem-solving skills.

“The idea that one rigid pathway works for every learner is fading fast. Students are more outcome-driven than ever; they want … a clear return on their investment,” Lufkin explained. 

As many students leave college, they face high student loan debt and little to show for it in terms of a stable career. 52 percent of college graduates are underemployed, meaning their job does not make full use of their skills; 10 years later, that number only drops by seven percent. Add the recent AI boom—projected to eat up hundreds of millions of jobs by 2030—and it’s no surprise that college graduates are wary of the current system.

“Higher education still plays a critical role in society,” Lufkin added, “but institutions are being pushed to rethink the delivery of learning and how education prepares learners for life after graduation.”

In 2025, higher education began tailoring its offerings to focus on the nation’s economy and current job market; universities are doubling down on career-readiness initiatives, and the federal student loan process is being overhauled to limit student debt, particularly for low-demand careers.

That reorientation toward outcomes, however, raises a harder question about technology—particularly the role AI will play in how students are taught, advised, and assessed.

Today’s college students have higher expectations for speed and personalization. Lufkin believes AI can help universities deliver more responsive, personalized experiences, particularly in everyday college functions such as student advising, course registration, and prompt assistance. 

“Many institutions are putting guardrails in place to protect academic integrity, ensure responsible AI use, and protect student data privacy, which are important first steps,” he said. “But readiness goes beyond policy,” Lufkin added, noting that “it’s about supporting faculty, helping students learn how to use AI ethically and effectively, and thoughtfully integrating AI into teaching and assessment. The institutions making the most progress see AI as an opportunity to enhance learning and engagement and are building the foundations now to do that well.”

Some institutions, however, resist AI reforms.

In 2025, only 15 percent of universities were using AI for student advising and support, and only six percent for individualized learning pathways for students. In a survey of provosts, Inside Higher Ed found that 52 percent believed professors should not be forced to use or allow AI in their classrooms, while 38 percent reported significant faculty objection to AI.

But institutions that resist AI integration may have no choice but to adapt.

“Colleges are navigating enrollment shifts, financial pressures, evolving expectations around outcomes, rapid technological change, and the growing need to support holistic student well-being,” Lufkin told Minding the Campus. “It’s a demanding moment, but also one that’s prompting institutions to be more intentional and collaborative in how they operate,” adding that “those that are aligning academic strategy, student support, and long-term sustainability are positioning themselves to serve learners more effectively, now and in the years ahead.”

The key to success, according to Lufkin, is adaptation: “Institutions that invest in connected systems, empower faculty, and design around learners won’t just respond to change; they’ll help shape the future of higher education.”