How is this year’s election going to affect American higher education? I am an economist, and our tribe is somewhere between mediocre to awful at forecasting, but since I am tenured, retired, and unpaid by Minding the Campus, there are utterly no adverse consequences from making a fool of myself with this current assessment.
American universities, both so-called private ones and state universities, are clearly wards of the state and highly dependent on governments for funding. The mostly left-of-center campus populations contribute significantly to the Democratic Party with money and ideas and staff key governmental positions. Kamala Harris’s Dad taught at Stanford. It is no wonder that polls show that Republicans are increasingly skeptical about supporting higher education.
I assign a 20 percent probability to the Democrats winning control of all three levels of federal power: the House, Senate, and Presidency. Despite some current polling, post-convention Democratic momentum, and Republican political missteps, I assign a 20 percent probability to the Republicans taking total control. I think when the Republicans start hammering on such issues as weakened border security—excessive illegal immigration—high inflation, the botched exit from Afghanistan, etc., the early Harris surge arising out of the September 10 debate might dissipate. Still, I think the most likely outcome—60 percent probability—is for a divided government. Even if Harris wins, I think there is a high possibility of a Republican controlled Senate.
If the left takes total control, expect increased collegiate funding for various teaching and research activities. Expect efforts to enact free college and student loan forgiveness. Expect even stronger Department of Education fatwas to be issued governing college behavior on everything from alleged sexual misconduct to supporting a pro “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) race conscious curriculum and putting limits on punishing campus political protesters. As already stated by Chuck Schumer, expect far-reaching leftist agenda items to be fulfilled, such as ending Senate filibusters, initiating making D.C. a state, and more aggressive harassment of the Supreme Court—potentially threatening a constitutional crisis.
If the right takes total control, expect decreased federal higher education activism. Expect a Secretary of Education to be more like Betsy DeVos rather than Miguel Cardona, and probably even an attempt to abolish the Education Department. Expect bigger defense budgets, forcing belt-tightening in other areas, including higher education. See an end to Biden-era federal programs to drop money out of airplanes, or the equivalent, over campuses.
But it is more likely we will have governmental stasis—a lot of verbal warfare and nastiness— more of the same. Reluctantly, much more attention will finally occur on ending the outrageous fiscal irresponsibility of the government. However, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has shown the slightest interest in balancing budgets. But likely further lowering of our debt rating with an accompanying decline in global acceptance of the dollar as the world’s leading currency, along with cries about the necessity of reducing Social Security benefits within a decade, might galvanize Washington into a modicum of adult behavior. If so, that will probably make higher ed a target for budget cutting.
The left’s objective of imposing substantial tax hikes on high-income Americans could have unintended repercussions. A decline in student applications to expensive elite schools and a reduction in endowment values and income are possible outcomes. Moreover, such tax increases could dampen U.S. economic growth, making it more challenging to fund non-essential government functions. This could lead to prioritizing payments to the unemployed over government-funded college aid to middle-class Americans.
Much public policy regarding higher education is determined at the state level, and some changes in political leadership can be expected. In reaction to increasing collegiate leftist ideological fervor on campus, many states have restricted DEI programs. Another development in some states has been the formation of largely independent academic centers espousing traditional values on state university campuses. Those programs might grow even more with increased Republican state government control or languish if Democrats are big winners in state-level elections this fall.
Whoever wins, higher education will have to face the consequences of several long-run trends. To mention just two: integrity and honesty have generally been a hallmark of our universities, but increasing scandals about fraudulent scientific findings and academic plagiarism are hurting the academy. The birth dearth likely means smaller freshmen classes in coming years—and the birth rate is still falling. Will we open the doors more to foreign students to offset this? Stay tuned.
Imagine Galeno — Adobe Stock — Asset ID#: 935191592 & Graduation Cap Added by Jared Gould
Starting with the last point first, where are more International students going to come FROM? China and India have built their own universities, and China has economic problems of its own. And even if other countries can supply the students, who is going to pay for them?
Trump recently gave a speech to IAC in which he promised to tell the college presidents to either end the antisemitism or he would end their Federal funding. I think you are going to see more of a Bill Bennett than Betsy DeVos, or perhaps a Betsy DeVos with a few younger Bill Bennetts under her.
Should the Dems take all three branches, it will look very much like the last two years of the Truman Administration (and remember that Korea was NOT a popular war at the time). We will lose Taiwan and likely Israel, that alone will give us a Republican Congress in 2026 — not to mention the disaster that the Dems would inevitably make of Higher Ed itself.
As Yeats put it, the middle shall cease to hold.
Regardless of who wins this fall’s elections, the Left “crossed the Rubicon” last spring — and is showing no intention of changing its ways. While a Harris Administration would tolerate this and a Trump Administration not, it’s really going to come down to Joe Sixpack and Suzie Sweatpants — and they will not tolerate this foolishness indefinitely.
In terms of arrests, we are about where we were at the height of the Vietnam protests in 1969, except this is being done by about 6% of the student body and not the 96% (or so) that were protesting Vietnam. Team Hamas’s support is a mile wide — and an inch deep, and while the country as a whole is willing to give the colleges a chance to deal with their problems themselves, that’s not indefinite — and does anyone honestly doubt that a President Trump would send Federal troops, as Eisenhower did…
Conversely, the Higher Ed Act *still* hasn’t been reauthorized, just funded, and a MAGA Congress (even with a President Harris) could simply eliminate it. The largess of modern higher ed exists on Federal funding and it would all collapse if Congress were to stop funding it.
So either way — and either in 2025 or 2027 — I see American Higher Education being given a brutal ultimatum — either end this foolishness or be ended. Yes, we could have another Kent State, but the difference now is that there isn’t the broad base of support that there was in 1970 — if we were to see a national strike today, it would be the MAGA doing the striking, the Left simply doesn’t have the numbers it did back then.
The dual standards depending on viewpoint will also become problematic, and the case of Amy Wax at Penn is a good example. See: https://www.inquirer.com/education/amy-wax-sanction-upenn-committee-20240923.html
I can see bringing a real White Supremacist in to spew his hatred because sunlight is the best disinfectant and it would be a good idea for future lawyers to have an idea of what they really are dealing with. Same thing with the equally vile anti-Semites
The problem is the dual standard and if they are going to suspend her, then they also need to suspend the supporters of Team Hamas, and the fact they won’t will become an issue..